The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
3:05 pm

SPX has been unable to complete its retracement, leaving a truncated fractal. The retracement barely made the 50% level, which is unusual this close to an all-time high. A close beneath the daily Cycle Bottom support at 5265.00 confirms a sell signal. The Cycles Model suggests a decline may follow until mid-June.
The DJIA was able to make a higher retracement by 13 points on April 15, qualifying it for a Master Cycle high. Prepare for a possible decline lasting to mid-June.
10:19 am

BKX was unable to make its final surge to a new retracement high. The Cycles Model infers a decline in the making by next week. It may decline beneath the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation by the end of next week. The evidence produced by the Cycles Model suggests a series of panic down days in early May.
9:59 am

The Ag Index is on its way higher after surpassing the 50-day Moving Average at 388.59. For the past month the Ag index has been in an “accumulation phase.” Today the buy signal is twice confirmed. The Cycles Model suggests the rally may continue through mid-June. The potential taret may be the Head & Shoulders neckline at 421.00.
7:45 am

Good Morning!
This morning’s SPX futures rose to 5341.86, above the Cycle Bottom where it had closed yesterday. Futures are easing lower. Should the SPX open beneath the Cycle Bottom at 5270.00, the decline which started yesterday may continue. Corporate insiders are buying shares ahead of the buyback blackout ending. However, they may be assuming the resumption of the uptrend. As you can see, the SPX is well beneath the long-term uptrend, the 1987 trendline. The Cycles Model suggests that, once the decline takes hold, it may continue for the next two months. The green Master Cycle may have ended on Monday in a truncated fashion, suggesting the turn may have occurred prematurely. There may be a slight risk of the SPX running up to the trendline by Monday.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5350.00. Long gamma may begin at a highly contested 5400.00 while short gamma strengthened beneath 5300.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures have bounced back from yesterday’s rout, following positive signals from initial US-Japan trade talks after President Donald Trump said there was “big progress” to strike a deal fueling optimism over trade negotiations. Still, as of 8:00am they are well off their highs after DJIA heavyweight member UnitedHealthcare plunged 20% after slashing outlook on care costs and after President Donald Trump berated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for being slow to cut interest rates; S&P 500 futures rising 0.4% having earlier risen as much as 1.2%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.8% with Mag7 names mostly higher as US-listed shares of TSMC rose 3.8% in premarket after forecasting sales for the second quarter that topped estimates. European stock fell and Asian markets rose. Volatility is becoming less extreme as the VIX retreated to around 30, down from last week’s peak of about 52. The dollar edged higher while the yen drops, lagging G-10 currencies. Gold dipped from record highs but was still trading above $3300 while oil rose for a second day after the US vowed to reduce Iran’s energy exports to zero.”


VIX futures declined to 30.22, but recovered back above the Cycle Top support at 31.08. The VIX remains on a buy signal. The Cycles Model anticipates a series of panic-up days over the next three weeks that may break records. Today over $2.6 trillion of notional options exposure will expire, including $1.2 trillion of SPX options and $480 billion notional of single stock options.
The April 23 options chain shows Max Pain at 25.00. Short gamma resides between 13.50 and 21.00. Long gamma may begin at 30.00 and extends to 60.00.

TNX is declining further this morning and may be hours away from a Master Cycle low. The potential target may be the Intermediate and mid-Cycle support at 42.19. The Cycles Model suggests a very strong reversal on Monday, followed by rising rates through mid-May. Should TNMX exceed the 50-day Moving Average at 43.20, the reversal may have been accomplished with a new buy signal.
ZeroHedge remarks, “As US equity markets continue to fall – and recession calls mount from establishment elites, despite strong ‘hard’ data’ – President Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Powell via TruthSocial this morning exclaiming that Powell’s termination from his position can’t come quickly enough, arguing that the US central bank should have lowered interest rates already this year, and in any case should do so now.
ZeroHedge reports, “After last week’s basis trade collapse (which we now know has already claimed several relative value multistrat hedge funds), many were dreading the outcome of today’s 20Y auction, a reopening of 19-Year, 10-Month cusip UJ5. It turned out they have nothing to fear.
The $13BN auction priced at 1:01pm ET at a high yield of 4.810%, up sharply from last month’s 4.632% and the highest since February; more importantly it stopped through the When Issued 4.814% by 0.4bps, the second consecutive stop through (if fractionally weaker than last month) and 3rd in the past 4 months.


USD futures may be consolidating near the Cycle Bottom at 99.23 in order to make the final probe beneath it. A potential target may reside between 96.00 and 98.00. The Cycles Model suggest a strong turning point on Monday, followed by a panic rally by mid-week.

Gold futures rose to 3371.89 during the overnight session, but have come back down in the red in a likely extension of the Master Cycle to day 274. The Cycles Model calls for a three-week decline from the top. There may be at least two panic down days in the interim. Keep in mind that the uptrend has lasted for 9 years and is due for a major correction. On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold has finally caught up to the 1980 high.

Crude oil futures rose to 63.67, rising above the Cycle Bottom resistance at 63.22. Crude is on a confirmed buy signal. The Cycles Model suggests the rally may last to the end of May. The narrow trading channel suggests the rally may rise above the Cycle Top at 79.58. A longer-term target may be the March 2022 high at 126.42.

Bitcoin is struggling to keep above the 50-day Moving average at 84205.00 and Intermediate support at 836156.00. Once beneath these levels, Bitcoin is on a sell signal until mid-June. The Cycles Model calls for an immediate surging decline followed by two possible panic down days next week. This doesn’t appear healthy, at all. China may have instigated a form of capital controls with a twist.
ZeroHedge comments, ” Local governments in China are reportedly seeking ways to offload seized crypto while facing challenges due to the country’s ban on crypto trading and exchanges.

The absence of clear rules on how authorities should manage seized cryptocurrency has led to “inconsistent and opaque approaches,” which some lawyers fear could open the door to corruption, according to an April 16 report by Reuters.”