The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

10:45 am

SPX may have issued a sell signal this morning.  Initial support may be had at 7500.00.  Should it remain beneath the trendline, tomorrow may be a panic down day.  Short leverage by hedge funds is at a 5-year high, a set-up  for a possible reversal soon.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7669.90, potentially breaking through the 5-month diagonal trendline near 7675.00.  Shjould it open beneath the trendline it may offer a sell signal.  A likely target for this decline may be the mid-Cycle suport at 7313.04.  It may go lower. Should it do so, Friday may bring a panic decline, followed by several limit down days through early November.

NDX futures have fallen to 29232.00 this morning, as it aproaches the bottom of its 5-month trading range.  Should it break down beneath its mid-Cycle support at 27982.98, it may continue to the long-term channel trendline near 26500.00.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible panic session on Friday.  .

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower as the AI trade discovered that there is no right answer on capex…”

The pre-market VIX rose to 18.58 this morning, reintroducing the buy signal.  While the Cycles Model doesn’t indicate unusual activity, the VIX is naturally volatile as seen this morning.  There is a potential Head & Shoulders formation that suggests a breakout of the 17-month Triangle formation.  While investors are still buying puts and selling calls, a rude awakening may ensue.

The US 10-year Bond Yield plummeted this morning, approaching its Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00.  It may challenge the 52-day Moving Average, as the declining fractal may not be complete.  However, once the target is reached, it may be due for a violent reversal as trending strength returns next week.

ZeroHedge observes, “The week’s lone coupon auction took place at 1pm and amid speculation of fireworks at the next Treasury Refunding Announcement in two weeks, when Citi is confident Bessent could announce the end of 20Y auction, it could very well be one of the last sales of 20Y paper for the US.

11: am

The US Dollar slipped beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline, but rallied back above it.  This action formed a Trading Cycle low.  Trading Cycles are lesser Cycles that may provide importatn reversal points within the Master Cycle. In this case, the Master Cyclle may resume  its uoptrend to the end of November.  Note that the Head & Shoulders formation may now be engaged.

The Euro has declined back beneath its Cycle Bottom support at 112.19.  A sell signal may be obtained should it remain beneath that level.

Crude oil has been in consolidation for the past week.  It may be able to break out of the sideways formation but remain beneath the neckline of the Head & Shoulders until the end of the month.

Gold has established a new low, reiterating its sell signal.  The current Master Cycle may last to mid-December, allowing gold to decline beneath what may be a new Head & Shoulders neckline.  More on that later.

The Agriculture Index has tested yesterday’s low and it held.  Once the base has ben firmly established, confidence may come back and with it, trending strength in the next week.  The Head & Shoulders necklne may be in sight as it may cross over in November.

Bitcoin has been chopping around the trendline at 82200.00 for over two weeks as it winds up its Master Cycle.  Ther may be some strength over the weekend to bolster its attempt to reach the Cycle Top at 89625.00.  However, there are no assurances it will make it as the Master Cycle is nearly spent.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7751.10 this morning, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 7762.42.  A retracement may go higher, all the way to, but not exceeding, the top tick at 7844.52.   However, most retracements fall within the confines of the Fibonacci gradients.  The Cycles Model infers a rise in volatility later this week, usually associated with a breakout or breakdown.  So the market is trying to decide whether to go higher (to challenge the top) or lower.  Hedge funds have reduced their exposure while retail investors are buying at a rate not seen since 2017.  Corporate buybacks are due to resume next week. The breaking point on the downside is the Diagonal trendline at 7675.00 today.

Zerohedge reports, “US futures are higher as blowout results from SpaceX and a monster preannouncement from Super Micro gave the battered AI trade a reason to bounce, while Elon Musk’s open endorsement of a SpaceX-Tesla merger added to the buzz…”

The  premarket VIX is challenging its prior trading channel trendline at 17.31 this morning.  The Cycles Model anticipates a possible reversal later this morning.  Should that happen, the VIX may begin to rise toward the upper Triangle trendline, near 24.00.  A breakout may be universally recognized as it approaches the Cycle Toop at 25.18.

The US 10-year Bond Yield continues to climb up the rising Inttermediate support at 50.95 this morning.  There; may be a slight risk of falling back toward the 52-day Moving Average at 49.59.  However, the retracment fractal may be complete at the low of 50.37.  That comment is brought forward by an indication of a possible minor Cycle low this weekend.

The US Dollar is hovering beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80.  It, too may be in a minor Cycle low this week.  A rise above the neckline at 101.80 may signal a reversal may be underway, offering an aggressive buy signal.  The buy signal may be confirmed on a rally above the Cycle Top at 102.34.  The USD may gain volatility near the end of the month.

The Euro may be attempting to maintain support at the Cycle Bottom at 112.22.  However, should it lose that support a sell signal may be used.  The potential for a free-fall in the Euro may arise next week that may last to the end of November.

ZeroHedge remarks, “France’s accelerating death spiral, amid social unrest by far-left groups, political gridlock, and deteriorating public finances as the welfare state teeters on the brink of implosion, comes just six months before a presidential election that has only given polling tailwinds to right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen.”

Crude oil may be corrcting its recent rally with a decline to te 52-day Moving Average at 91.44.  An alternative may be a sideways consolidation over the next week as WTI burns off its overbought condition.  Volatility may pick up near the end of the month.

ZeroHedge observes, “OSINT X accounts will soon cover the first Russian tanker carrying diesel for the US market, following President Trump’s deal with Moscow to supply the US amid a global refining crisis sparked by Ukraine hitting Russian energy assets and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Gold continues its consolidation beneath major resistance at 4239.66 and above a trendline near 3950.00.  The consolidation may resolve itself by the weekend.  Volatility may spike next week.  The trend remains “down” until further notice.

The Agriculture Index may have made its final low in its current Master Cycle this morning.  A reversal may be imminent.  The new master Cycle may challenge the Head & Shoulders neckline at 450.39 by the end of October.  Harvest is still underway.

ZeroHedge quips, “Wheat futures just touched a two-month low, which for some is a sign the food-inflation scare of the summer has come and gone. Goldman disagrees.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

7:45 am.

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 7706.00 in the overnight session.  Support lies at the Ending Diagonal trendline at 7660.00.  Beneath that, the sell signal may be confirmed.  The subsequent support level may be found at the mid-Cycle level at 7304.68.  Internally, there were 122 more new lows than new highs.  The NYSE Hi-Lo Index may be set to plunge deeper by the end of the month, taking the SPX with it.

NDX futures declined to 29317.00 this morning as the rebound stopped beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 29851.97.  The rebound turned into a weak retracement.  Should the NDX remain above its Friday low at 29073.00,  it may make a second attempt at the 52-day Moving Average.  The Cycles Model implies a sideways consolidation may take place this week.  The correction is already underway, with the average stock down approximately 10%.  The correction may not be complete until the leaders join in a washout decline.

The premarket VIX rose to a morning high at 18.88.  Yesterday it tested the trendline at 17.39 and it held.  There may be some consolidation (calm?) to the end of the month.  Vix may become very active in the month of November.

The US Dollar has found support at the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80.  While this denotes a buy signal for the USD, most may wait for a breakout to buy the USD.  The Cycles Model offers an intermediate level at the Cycle Top that may confirm the buy signal.

The Euro has declined beneath the Cycle Bottom at 112.28 to create a sell signal.  It remains beneath the inverted Head & Shoulders formation, leaving the formation active and engaged.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may resume until the end of November.

ZeroHedge observes, “An 11 p.m. curfew took effect in parts of the Paris metro area on Monday, along with curfew restrictions in other cities, after the Macron government embarrassingly struggled for weeks to contain far-left social unrest and chaos that had spiraled out of control. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the measures helped restore calm overnight and will put new curfews in place where needed today.”

The US 10-year Bond Yield is testing Intermediate support at 50.85 this morning.  Should it succeed, TNX may go higher.  It may consolidate beneath the Cycle Top for the next week, building strength.  Be advised that  Trending Strength is due for a comeback in another week.  The current mster Cycle may continue higher to mid-November.

Crude oil bounced this morning as it enters a corrective phase.  The boundaries of this phase may be the Intermediate support at the low end and the neckline of the Head & Shoulders at the high end.  The correction may last another week,  followed by an increase in Trending Strength that may carri WTI above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.

Gold may be consolidating this week while burning off the oversold condition.  The Cycles Model is relatively calm for the next week, with volatility picking up next mid-week.  The trend is down with support at the Head & Shoulders neckline near 3950.00.  The current Master Cycle is not due for completion until the end of November.

Bitcoin made an attempt at the trendline at 82200.00 this morning, but failed.  It has another week in the current Master Cycle to complete its uptrend near the Cycle Top at 89386.00.

The Agriculture Index may be winding up its master Cycle as it eases down to a potential new low for its Master Cycle.  It may be due for a reversal imminently.  Trending Strength may return at the end of the month.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures may have bounced off the trendline as buy-the-dip investors came back over the weekend, rising to 7725.10.  However, the sellers also came back this morning, pushing the futures back down beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 7706.81.  The challenge of the trendline near 7635.00 on Friday is telling, suggesting the decline may not be over.  A decline beneath thee trendline at 7660.00 offers a sell signal while remaining beneath the 52=day Moving Average confirms it.  The Cycles Model infers that trending (downward) strength may increase as the week progresses.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher – but well off session highs hit before the European open – as dip buyers storm back into chipmakers after the Nasdaq’s worst week since the April 2025 tariff turmoil…”

NDX futures bounced to 29619.00 over the weekdnd, but remained beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 29851.17.  A sell signal was created on Thursday and remains intact.  Despite record Tech selling, the NDX remains above its May 19 low.  The uptrend remains unbroken.  The uptrend may be condsidered to be contained above the mid-Cycle support at 27920.00.  Wall Street has decided it’s time to buy.  A healthy buy signal may not appear until there is a total washout with no buyers left.

The premarket VIX declined to 18.26 over the weekend, but rose back above the mid-Cycle support at 18.29 this morning.  It remains on a buy signal.  Friday’s panic hedging was the result of a show of trending strength in the VIX.  That trending strength may continue to a lesser degree this week.  The uptrend in the VIX may not be recognized until it rises above the Cycle Top at 25.18.  The month of November may be particularly volatile.

The US 10-year Bond Yield opened above its Intermediate support at 50.76 this morning.  It is on a buy signal, but investors may decore the additional comfort of a close above the Cycle Top at 51.76.  The Cycles Model suggests consolidation may take place this week.  The week of October 26 may inject strength into the uptrend as it may break out to new highs.

The US Dollar may have found support this morning at the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80.  Should additional strength arrive, the Cycle Top may be overcome, allowing a reiteration of the buy signal.

The Euro received a brief burst of energy over the weekend, then eased back .  It may offer a sell signal upon a decline beneath the Cycle Vottom.  Panic selling may arrive during the week of October 26.

ZeroHedge obsseves, “French government bonds sold off, and the CAC 40 fell Monday after a weekend of nationwide riots and chaos intensified concerns over political instability as the Macron government failed to restore order.”

Crude oil consolidated beneath its Friday high this morning as it rises toward its neckline at 106.75.  The neckline may produce a short-term correction, but the Cycles Model suggests the trend may be ongoing through November.  Wall Street declares, “Prices have peaked.”

ZeroHedge observes, “Brent crude futures briefly tagged $109.99 a barrel in overnight trading before retreating from five-month highs during the Asian session and into European trading, as signs of recovering Middle Eastern supply offset renewed attacks on energy infrastructure and critical maritime shipping lanes.”

Gold continued its consolidation this morning.  However, a surge in volatility may be due, which may consoquently affect the trend.  While the fractal structure suggests a surge in price, the Cycles Model has not decided yet.  The outcome may be interesting.

The Agriculture Index may be on its final aproach to its proposed Master Cycle low near 400.00.  A reversal may be anticipated by mid-week.  While GKX may have considerable overhead resistance, trending strength may reappear next week.  The fall harvest is underway.  Results may be reported soon.

Agriculture.com reports, “Key Takeaways

Bitcoin continues to consolidate this morning as it may be winding up its current Master
Cycle this week.  The uptrend is intact, so it may follow that the likely outcome may be a rise to the Cycle Top at 89312.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:30 pm

SPX has traversed beneath yesterday’s low at 7669.66, confirming the sell signal.  The Bear market welcomes you!

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7764.60, near its 61.8% retracement level at 7763.60.  The retracement may be complete.  The Cycles Model suggests a downturn this morning, potentially leaving Monday’s high as the terminus of the Master Cycle.  However, should it exceed Monday’s high, the Master /Cycle may be extended to today.  Regardless of today’s events, it would not be advisable to be long on Monday.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher, and small caps are leading, as the crowded-trade unwind that hammered chips, momentum and AI baskets all week takes a breather: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said nothing about rates at the IMF gathering in Bangkok overnight (traders took the silence as a dovish gift, cutting October hike odds to 14% from 26%)…”

NDX futures fell to a morning low at 29760.50 before a bounce.  It is currently back beneath its 52-day Moving Aaverage at 29861.67 and on a sell signal.  The Cycles Model suggests the declin e may continue to mid-December.  The 103-day Moving Average is at 29022.00.  Action may become ugly beneath that level.

The premarket VIX declined to 115.94 this morning, remaining above the 52-day Moving Average at 15.52 and on a buy signal.  The VIX remains “sleepy” for most investors, waiting for a breakout above the September high at 18.94.  The VIX hasn’t hit the mid-20’s since June and no one is expecting it to go any higher.  However, this 17-month Triangle formation may have matured and with it, a whole new trend may emerge.  Triangles generally make a complete retracement when finished.

The US 10-year Bond Yield gapped higher this morning after making a reversal near the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.  The uptrend may be about to resume, slowly at first, then turning violent toward the end of the month.  What’s coming may be a major bond liquidation led by China, the largest foreign holder of US bonds.

The US Dollar declined to challenge the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80 this morning.    This condition may not last, as volatility may be about to explode.

The Euro rose to challenge its Cycle Bottom this morning at 112.34.  Should it close beneath it, the Euro may resume its decline.  A surge in volatility may arrive this weekend.

Crude oil continues its advance after yesterday’s surge.  While the possibility of a partial retracement  remains, the general trend is higher. with the 52-day Moving Average at 90.16 providing the ultimate support.

Gold may be failing to thrive at a critical point in its Cycle.  This is a concern if it fails to thrive, since volatility may be about to explode in gold.

The Agriculture Index continues its decline to finish possibly at 400.00, a round number support.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible reversal either Monday or Tuesday.  This is an excellent place to add shares or futures of Ag-related companies or commodities.

Bitcoin remains near its trendline with no clear direction in October.  Yesterday’s low is suspect, but bitcoin may have another week in its master Cycle.  Should its remain above the trendline at 82200.00, it may probe the Cycle Top at 89083.00 in the next week.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7681.50 this morning, beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 7705.53.  Should it follow through beneath the 52-day, the SPX may issue a sell signal, even if it bounces back.  The Master Cycle may have ended on Monday with a possible truncation of the last fractal probe,   Truncations are rare, but the timing for the reversal was spot-on with the Cycles Model.  Should the SPX rise back above the 52-day Moving Average, a bounce may ensue, possibly lasting to Monday.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower as the AI unwind goes global – Korea’s Kospi crashed into a bear market and tripped circuit breakers…”

NDX futures declined to 29530.00 this morning, beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 29839.00.  Should it bounce back above the 50-day, the bounce may last only a couple of days.  The NDX Master Cycle high landed on Thursday, October 8.  If correct, the ensuing decline may last to mid-December.

INDU futures rose to 51874.40 this morning, remaining beneath Intermediate resistance at 52027.26.  The Industrials peaked on Tuesday near the 52-day Moving Average at 52583.35.  It has been on a sell signal since September 8 when it declined beneah the 52-day Moving Average.  An aggressive sell signal was made in early August.

ZeroHedge temarks, “For the past few years, the market has been obsessed with the next big thing. AI, semiconductors, momentum, whatever happens to have the hottest chart and the most ridiculous valuation.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has been doing what Warren Buffett always does: buying quality, ignoring the noise, and letting everyone else have their fun.”

The premarket VIX rose to 17.64 this morning, challenging the trading channel trendline near 17.50 and approaching the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.27.  Note that the VIX also had a truncated Cycle Bottom last Friday, warning us of this week’s event in equities.

The US 10-year Bond Yield dropped to 50.79 this morning.  The next support is Intermediate support at 50.55 followed by the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 50.00.  The Cycles Model may allow anotheer day or two of decline with the neckline as the potential low.  Note that the H&S may already be activates, so TNX must find a support from which to resume its uptrend.  The week of October 26 looks par\ticularly volatile.

The US Dollar pulled back from its extended Master Cycle high this morning, bouncing from the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80.  The pullback may last another day or two, but the trendline has a high probability of remaining intact.  Trennding strength may make a comeback over the wekend.

The Euro rose to 112.41 this morningas it may complete a retracement to the Cycle Bottom resistance at 112.45.  The bounce may not last as the downtrend may regain its strength over the weekend.

ZeroHedge observes, “Social unrest in France, Belgium, and now Albania raises the risk of riot contagion across Europe. Young rioters’ involvement gives far-left groups opportunities to exploit grievances and channel them into broader anti-government mobilization.”

Crude oil is consolidating inside yesterday’s trading range,, finding a possible floor at Intermeidate support at 93.65.  The uptrend may gain in intensity as the end of October approaches.  It is possible that a breakout may occur by early November.

Gold may have made an early Master Cycle low on October 7.  Yesterday’s low did not break down beneath that level.  While there is still time for a lower low, the stronger likelihood may be higher.  There is no signal in either direction for the time being.

Bitcoin declined beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 81108.00, leaving a sell signal.  The Cycles Model suggests at least another week of possible decline.  A lot may happen in a week, so longs are at risk.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7418.40 this morning as it approaches its target near 7950.00.  While there is no assurance that it may reach that target, the likelihood becomes stronger if the current probe higher reaches or exceed 7876.00.  In that instance, the fractal may be expanding.  Should it not reach that level, the fractal may be shrinking, leaving a lower final target.  The dominant factors are the massive issuance of new equjties with the lockups expiring this year, coupled with a buyback blackout, wavering confidence and diminshed liquidity.

NDX futures rose to 30676.00 this morning before easing back.  Asset managers are still long, trailed by retail investors who are coming back after the summer rout.  For the time being, the trend is still higher.  While the Cycle Top is at 34422.50, it may not be likely that the NDX reaches that level.  The rest of the week may tell the full story.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher, with small caps leading and tech lagging, as traders brace for what is expected to be the hottest monthly CPI print since the spring…”

The premarket VIX rose to 15.72 this morning, challenging the 52-day Moving Average.  Should it close above it, a buy signal may be issued.  Investors are complacent, as more calls than puts are being purchased.  The Master Cycle may have terminated on Friday, October 9, allowing the VIX the ability to start a new uptrend.

The US 10-year Bond Yield bounced above its Cycle Top support at 51.53.  I had mentioned earlier that the Cycle Top would provide a formidable support, despite the normal practice of pulling back to the neckline.  The CPI report affirms that the trend is much stronger than anticipated.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Expectations were for a hot headline and cool core heading into this morning’s most-watched macro signal from CPI with the October FOMC decision on the line. FedSpeak has clearly pushed the market to back away from a hawkish view, today’s data may force a change.”

The US Dollar rose to 102.72, breaking out above the previous high.  Should the USD continue rising, this may be labeled a running correction.  That is, the normal retracement may be cut short.  Dollar shorts have left the pan and are in the fire, giving impetus to the rally.  The Cycles Model warned that today would show trending strength.

The Euro cut short ita retracement and made a new low this morning at 111.16.  Should the decline continue, we may label this move a “running correction” where bounces/retracements are cut short and the trend extends.

Crude oil rose to 95.99 this morning as it continues a steady advance higher.  There is a slight possibility of a pullback to the Intermediate support at 63.30 before resuming its rally.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:20 am

The Banking Indes may have performed a possible Key Reversal at the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.20.  This is not the end of  a Master Cycle.  Instead it may be viewed as a mid-Cycle reversal.  It may be about to test the neckline of its head & Shoulders formation at 165.50.  Should it break through, the downside target may be the Cycle Bottom currently at 149.01.

ZeroHedge remarks, “And Q3 earnings season is off with a mixed report from JPMorgan, which moments ago reported results that showed a surprising drop in FICC trading revenue which sent the stock sliding in the premarket trading, but then promptly erased the entire loss after the company revealed Net Interest Income guidance that came about $1 billion higher than expected.”

Further, ZeroHedge compares, “In a carbon copy of JPMorgan, which kicked off Q3 earnings season this morning, Goldman’s equities traders blew past expectations in the third quarter, while its fixed-income and rates-trading counterparts fell far below Wall Street’s estimates.”

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated this morning inside yesterday’s trading range.  It is in the final days of its current Master Cycle.There may be a new all-time high, but the market has lost momentum.  Without that momentum, earlier targets are getting a haircut.  In fact, the fractal structure may put a limit on the upside at 7950.00.  Whether it reaches that price under current circomstances or not is open to debate.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are mixed with the Nasdaq lagging as the AI rout that started on Wall Street on Monday ricocheted through Asia, where the Kospi crashed as much as 7% after Broadcom’s Hock Tan likened AI investing to a casino…”

The Dow Jones Industrials futures is the only index that is posibie this morning, reaching 52311.10.    The positive is that it has exceeded its Intermediate resistance at 51138.00  The next resistance is the 52-day Moving Average at 52610.30.  A leap above that level may give the Dow a second wind, as investorsa take flight to quality in a deteriorating market.

The premarket VIX rose to 15.61 this morning, testimg tjhe 52-day Moving Average at 15.53.  A close above the 52-day offers a confirmed buy signal.   The VIX may have reached the downside terminus of its Master Cycle on Friday.  This particular Triangle formation did not have an elongated tail, as several recent formations have shown.  This shortened version may be viewed as a truncation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures tumbled to 51.70 whils the cash market bottomed at 51.85.  The Cycles Model demonstrates a potential weakness for another week or so, allowing the TNX to decline.  The normal retracement would be a pullback to the necklne of the Head & Shoulders formation at 50.00.  However, the Cycle Top at 51.37 provides a very strong support structure that may not allow a full retracement.  While many analysts are expecting a deeper pullback fueled by a potential short squeeze, the bond market may ofer a nasty surprise.

The US Dollar may be proving a point made for the bond index.  It has stopped its decline at the Cycle Top at 102.21.  In addition, the Cycles Model sugests that a resumption of trending strength may be imminent.  Shoulld the USD bounce above the Cycle Top, the oucome may be a possible panic rally engaging the Head & Shoulders formation.

The Euro made a modst bounce this morningas out of its Master Cycle low made yesterday.  It shows the inverse of the picture for the TNX and USD.  To reiterate, the normal retracement beneath a Head & Shoulders formation would be the neckline at 113.25.  While that is possible, a possibly higher probability may be that the Cycle Bottom at 112.61 may provide enough resistance to turn the Euro back down.  Should that event occur, a potential free-fall event may take place in the next week.

Crude oil has eased down this morning, testing the Intermediate support at 92.67.  Should support hold, crude may advance higher, with the neckline of the Head  Shoulders formation at 106.75 in mnd.

ZeroHedge observes, “The diesel agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will not solve the diesel shortage, considering the magnitude of the problem created by years of misguided, wrongly called “environmental policies.”

Gold may be forming its final push in the current Master Cycle, due to terminate this week.  Overhead resistance lies at 4297.85.   The lower support ,ay be the trendline at 3942.00.  Resolution may be imminent.

The Agriculture Index is rising beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 418.51.  However, the resitance there may send GKX back down to a marginal new low.  It is approaching its Master Cycle terminus this week.  Critical support may lie at 400.00,, round number support.

Bitcoin is slowly lifting itself out of the doldrums, as strength gradually returns.  It may come quickly by the weekend.  The neckline of the head & Shoulders formation is still being tested at 82200.00.  Hwever, it may have found additional support at the 52-day Moving Average at 51018.00.  The  Cycles Model allows another 1-2 weeks of uptrend for the current master Cycle.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:37 am

The Banking Index is on a bounce to test the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.19 this week.  The Cycles Model points to Thursdy as a high volatility day where the BKX may resume its decline through the Head & Shoulders formation.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7838.90 thism orning, approaching it all-time high.  There is no conviction here, as fewer companies participate in the rally.  The Friday Hi-Lo Index closed at minus 81.00, revealing that 81 more companies on the NYSE made new lows rather than new highs.  The Hi-Lo Index has not closed positive since August 28.  In addition, only 182 companies out of 2800 on the NYSE closed above the 50-day Moving Average on Friday.  The big attraction is still AI, but a rift may be developing between Korea’s memory chips and Taiwan’s semiconductor components.  The Cycles Model suggests the end may be near.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are flat, with S&P contracts clinging to small gains and the Nasdaq slipping into the red as memory stocks slide, after a weekend of contradictory geopolitical headlines whipsawed oil…”

The premarket VIX climbed to 15.56 this morning as it rises above the Triangle trendline and approaches the 52-day Moving Average at 15.63.  A buy signal above the 52-day may be imminent.  Should that be so, the ensuing rally may last to the end of November.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures declined to 52.25 this morning, suggesting a resumption of the corrective decline.  While the normal retracement would backtrack to the Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00, the fractal structure suggests the Cycle Top may provide support for the pullback.  Stay on alert, since the Cycles Model may be offering the support level, but the timing may not be clear.

The US Dollar is consolidating above the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation.  It may test the neckline at 101.80 before rising higher.  However, time is running out on this Cycle and new Trending Strength may return in just a few days.

The Euro may have reached its Master Cycle low on Wednesday, October 7.  A bounce is in the works that may test the neckline at 113.25.  The Cycle Bottom resistance at 112.70 may cut the bounce short.

Crude oil has risen above Intermediate support/resistance at 92.57, giving a buy signal.  There may be a show of strength in the next few days as WTI rises above resistance levels.  The Cycles Model suggests the uptrend may resume through the end of November.

Gold may be in the final stage of its decline toward the trendline.  It may be identified as a Head & Shoulders neckline.  A plunge through it may offer more information  to quantify the formation.

The Agriculture Index may be on its final path to a Master Cycle low this week.  The highest probability day for a reversal may be Thursday.

Bitcoin rose above its proposed Head & Shoulders neckline at 82200.00 today.  Should it find support at the neckline, it may contiue higher to complete the current Master Cycle.  The Cycles Model suggests the rally may last to the week of October 19, with a possible extension to the week of October 26.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to a morning high at 7803.20 thus far.  The final push higher may be about to begin.  The Cycles Model suggests the SPX may peak during the week of October 12.  While the average target may be the Cycle Top currently at 8044.00, the Fractal structure may be limited to 7950.00.  The Cycles Model does not call for a rise in animal spirits this week, so the Fractal rules may dominate.

The NDX futures have risen this morning to 31034.30 and may have begun its final Fractal as well.  The Cycle Top resistance lies at 32315.83.  However the Fractal structure may limit the rally to 31900.00.

Zerohedge reports, “US futures are higher as a trifecta of AI relief, easing geopolitical tensions and fading energy prices has lifted sentiment into the final trading day of the week:”

The premarket VIX declined to a morning low at 15.10, at the Triangle trendline.  Protection is being dumped rather than bought.  However, the current Master Cycle may have run out of time.  On this occasion, it is possible that the potential “tail” may not be pinned to the Triangle formation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield rose to 52.65 this morning after making a key reversal yesterday.  In this case, the key reversal may be temporarily bearish for yields.  The possible decline may last to the week of October 19 with the Head & Shoulders neckline as its possible target.

The US Dollar remains in a consolidationfor a few more days.  The corrective fractal suggests a retest of the Head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80, then a possible double reversal aiming higher.  At that point the H&S formaton takes over with xonsequences.

The Euro may be resuming its decline that may last into next week.  The next support level may be 110.00, but no assurance that the decline may stop there.  However, the current Master Cycle may be winding up its lower probe before a retest of the neckline.  .

Crude oil may be rising to retest Intermediate resistance at 92.31 this morning.  Should its close above that level, a buy signal may be given. Volatility may rise oveer the weekend, giving crude a possible jolt higher.   Should it not rise above resistance, a deeper decline may be ahead next week.

Gold has bounced from it low, but the Master Cycle may not be complete.  The Cycles Model allows another possible week of decline.  The issue here is that there may be rising volatility next week whicch may spill over into the week of October 19.  The trendline at 3900.00 or the Cycle Bottom at 3820.10 may be tested.

The Agriculture Index is testing the 52-day Moving Average at 417.58 today, in preparation of a relaunch of its uptrend.  The Cycles Model suggests that the uptrend may last into late November.  In addition, trending strength may be coming back next week.

Agrolatam.com reports, “The 2026 U.S. corn harvest is running behind its historical pace in 11 states, according to the USDA Crop Progress report released October 5, covering the week ending October 4. Nationally, farmers had harvested 23% of their corn acreage, four percentage points below the five-year average of 27%. Iowa and Michigan recorded the largest shortfalls, while persistent rainfall and wet field conditions restricted harvesting across parts of the Corn Belt. The delays matter for growers, grain handlers, and agricultural markets as the industry enters a critical period for field operations and grain movement.”

Bitcoin has risen back above its necklineat 82600.00 this morning after a brief test.  Teh Cycles Model suggests the current Master Cycle may stretch another 2 weeks or more as it labors at a possible Head & Shoulders formation.

The Banking Index is consolidating between the neckline of a potential Head & Shoulders formation at 165.86 and the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.17.  A decline through the neckline may activate the H&S formation.  The Cycles Model indicates the decline may continue to the week of October 26, with possible extensions.