The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures tested the low by declining to 7609.50, testing Intermediate support at 7615.23 this morning, then bounced into positive territory.  It did not need to test the 52-day Moving Average at 7567.44.  Cycle Top resistance is currently at 7887.23 and rising, shile the uupper trendline may reach 8000.00 in a couple of weeks.  Domestic analysis shows that excess liquidity is negative,  buybacks are fading and there isn’t much incremental buying power left.  However, they miss an important point from the international economy.  Japan may be on the verge of collapse.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are lower with Tech underperforming as oil prices / bond yields move higher (although off session highs), both in response to an acceleration in “kinetic hostilities” in the Middle East.”

Nikkei 225 futures dropped to 63760.00 this morning after being unable to rise above its 52-day Moving Average at 67149.48.  Its current Master Cycle is a long lasting one, ongoing to mid-November.  While investors are acting “edgy” around the SPX, the decline in the Nikkei will force investors to find safe harbor elsewhere.  The DJIA and SPX offer alternatives as the strongest indices globally.

The premarket VIX rose marginally higher this morning to 16.82 thus far.  The VIX has carried a volatility deficit since the start of the Iran war.  Despite rising stock prices, VIX may continue its rise.  There are indications of large dealer losses in the options market that may be revealed in the coming days.

The US 10-year Bond Yield pulled back this morning from its Master Cycle high.  TNX is due for a back-test of the Head & Shoulders neckline near 47.00.  It may go lower, but should it stay above, the next phase of the uptrend may be powerful.  The Cycles Model shows about 2 weeks of potential weakness before moving higher in strength.

Crude oil made a new high this morning before pulling back.  The Cycles Model suggests possibly sideways-to-lower prices over the next two weeks before strength reappears.  While Venezuela oil does not immediately translate into lower gas prices, the impact of this new fuel source may take months to develop.

ZeroHedge notes, “The exploding cost of energy is most obviously being felt at the gasoline pumps for Americans as evidenced in this Visual Capitalist graphic where prices in some states are up over 60% in six months in the wake of the Iran war.”

The Agriculture Index made a new high this morning, then pulled back.  This may not be a reversal from the Master Cycle as yet.  The Cycles Model show another bout of strength coming this weekend that may produce a top.  What may follow is a back-test of the head & Shoulders formation before resuming its uptrend.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) posted its largest monthly gain since the chaotic days of the Arab Spring riots and is nearing a breakout above its 2023 highs, signaling a broad-based acceleration in agricultural commodity prices.”

Gold bounced from its Intermediate support at 4294.19 this morning, beginning a possible correction that may test the 52-day Moving Average at 4217.00.   Ths is not to be mistaken for a reversal…just a bounce.  Hope springs eternal, as investors may try to pile in to the “dip.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:42 pm

The decline may have gone faster than anticipated.  The low at 7611.20 nearly made the target at 7600.00, suggesting completion.  Onward and upward!

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7638.50 this morning, just ticks above the previous low at 7838.17.  I had mentioned yesterday that a decline beneath 7638.00 creates a short term sell signal.  This may create a possible “bear trap” as the SPX declined toward the 52-day Moving Average currently at 7563.38, where it meets a rising trendline.  Should the trendline hold, the SPX may then rise toward the Cycle Top resistance currently at 7881.03 over the next 2-3 weeks.  It may go higher, if the Cycle extends.  Wall Street is recommending a reduction of exposure to equities.  They may buy what you sell.

ZeroHedge reports, “Stock futures are set to start the new month on the backfoot – having weathered a variety of challenges to post a gain for August – with tech lagging as a global selloff pushes yields to the highest level since 2008.”

The premarket VIX rose to 15.96 this morning.  A breakout may occur above 16.31 as investors buy protection against the possible decline in equities.  The VIX may then rise to the to of the Ending Diagonal near 19.50 in the next few days.

The US 10-year Bond Yield broke out this morning.  The futures hit 48.01 thus far while the cash market (TNX) rose to 47.90, above its Cycle Top at 47.77.  Investors may likely chase this breakout, but the Cycles Model suggests it may be a fast move, as it has the potential to reach 50.00 in the next week or two.  A fast and disorderly rally in yields may be a setback for stocks.

The US Dollar is consolidating above its mid-Cycle support after having risen through it.  Additional strength may be imminent as yields rise.  The next resistance level is the 52-day Moving Averageat 100.38.  Above that, the dollar shorts may panic, boosting the USD toward the Head & Shoulders neckline.  A breakout may be in the works, as the new Master cycle may last to mid-October.

ZeroHedge notes, “Last week’s financial media was full of apocalyptic headlines: “$40 trillion in national debt!” “U.S. debt in a doom loop!” “The end of the dollar is near!”

Gold and bitcoin soared in lockstep with the dollar doom and gloom. If you took the headlines at face value, one would assume the dollar was already toast and U.S. Treasuries were worth no more than digital confetti.”

Crude oil rose above its previous high, indicating a continuation of the uptrend.   Trending strength has shown up alreaady today and is likely to reappear later this week or early next.  The current Cycle may last to mid-October with a minimum target near 100.00.  A more likely target may be the Cycle Top at 110.77.  Should it go to 119.48 or higheer, a massive Cup with Handle may be formed with an average target near 184.00 sometime in 2027.

Gold futures continued its decline in strength today as it seeks out Intermediate support at 4283.00, where a short-term bounce may occur.  The current Master Cycle may have up to 2 weeks left as it may target the Cycle Bottom currently at 3855.00.

The Ag Index continues higher as it solidifies its rally above the Head & Shoulders neckline.  It may be nearing the end of this Cycle, possibly at the end of the week.  Once the top is in, a pullback to the neckline may be in order.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7672.90 this morning, beneath round number support at 7700.00.  A probe beneath its prior low at 7638.00 indicates a possible further decline to test  the 52-day Moving Average at 7560.02 over the next two weeks.  While institutional investors are lightening up on equities, retail investors are buying calls.  The dip may not be ready to be bought.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures dropped in thin trading with most traders out as summer draws to a close, while oil prices jumped after the US and Iran exchanged attacks for first time in weeks.”

The premarket VIX rose to 15.29 this morning, above the lower Triangle trendline.  Investors had given up on buying protection last week, just as the price is being reset.  The Cycles Model suggests a probe higher to the top of the short-term trading channel just beneath 20.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may have hit escape velocity, remaining above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 47.00.  The Cycles Model anticipates TNX rising to a new high this week, then a possible retest of the neckline.

ZeroHedge observes, “The US $40 trillion debt has dominated global headlines. However, although the US fiscal challenges are relevant, we must remember an important lesson. Fiscal policy is not about who wins but who loses first.”

USD is consolidating near Friday’s high as it is now on a buy signal.  The Cycles Model suggests a contiued rise to mid-October, giving the dollar the ability to break above its Head & Shoulders formation.

Gold futures are consolidating near Friday’s low, after having left a sell signal by declining beneath the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 4548.74 on Friday after investors piled  in at the high.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible further decline   to mid-September where the Cycle Bottom may come into play.

Investing.com remarks, “Gold prices pulled back on Monday as investors continued to reassess the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook following Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish inflation message, while rising oil prices added to inflation concerns.”

Crude oil rose above the downtrend line as itt rose out of a minor Trading Cycle low last week.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible surge, propelling it higher this week.  The longer term outlook shows crude rising through mid-October.  The Cycle Top resistance at 110.73 is a critical point during this rally.  Should it rise above it, neww all-time highs may be expected.

The Agriculture Index may have made its Master Cycle high on Friday.  The Cycles Model suggests a reversal may not come until the end of the week, so no action is anticipated until the final high is recorded.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated above 7700.00 this morning, confirming yesterday’s breakout after the dip.  It may be on a renewed buy signal that may take effect after a back-test of support (Jackson Hole).  Should it break down beneath 7700.00, however, we may see a further decline to the 52-day Moving average near 7561.00 before a final rally.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures are flat and rates rise ahead of today’s main event: Fed chief Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech at 10am ET (full preview here) as traders seek clarity on his economic outlook and his strategy for lowering inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating beneath the trendline, suggesting a further drop to the bottom of the trading channel near 14.00.  VIX is very calm, suggesting a bounce may be forthcoming.

The US 10-year Bond Yield was stopped at the neckline this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may continue to the 52-day Moving average at 45.94 over the next week or so.

ZeroHedge observes, “A stellar 2Y auction, a subpart 5Y, and it only makes sense that we end the week with a perfectly average sale of $44BN in 7Y bonds.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated inside yesterday’s trading range as it may emerge out of a minor Trading Cycle.  It is helpful to be aware of this lesser Cycle, although it often does not sync with the Master Cycle.  It may provide queues for buying the dip in a longer trend.  The Master Cycle has 2-3 weeks left, with the balance of this week as a base-building oportunity for the next probe higher.  Nvidia reports earnings after the close today, which may provide some volatility.

ZeroHedge reports, “Stock futures are are flat and Treasuries slipped while oil stumbled heading into today’s PCE report and NVDA earnings.”

The premarket VIX also consolidated this morning, with indications of going higher.  The Cycles Model suggests a strong surge of strength over the next few days.  The outcome may be a test of theEnding Diagonal trendline near 19.50.  Should it follow this ending fractal, the boost higher may be followed by a decline to new lows over the next few weeks.

USD is also consolidating beneath the dual resistance at 99.13.  The Master Cycle has flipped, but has not gained enough strength to emerge above its 200-day Moving Average.  The Cycles Model suggests that Trending strength may return over the weekend.  The new Master Cycle may probe higher to mid-October.

The US 10-year Bond Yield continues to decline toward its 52-day Moving Average and lower trendline at 45.85.   While yields temporarily decline, the honeymoon may already be over for Warsh.  Hard questions may be asked at Jackson Hole.  The fact is, since 1949, the Fed has not been in charge of the trend in rates.  The Cycles Model suggests the “line in the sand” may be testd next week.

ZeroHedge observes, “After last week’s post “Bessent buyback” fireworks, which sent yields on a rollercoaster ride in the subsequent days, many were very curious to see how today’s sale of $69BN in 2 year paper, the week’s first coupon auction, would go and whether Bessent inadvertently had impaired primary market issuance. In the end, the auction went through without a glitch.”

Crude oil continues to decline to a triple support area near 79.06 this morning.  Time and price may offer a reversal of this correction by Friday.  The Cycles Model suggests the trend may resume higher to mid-October, with the Cycle Top at 110.71 as the intended target.

ZeroHedge observes, ” Brent crude futures dropped for a third session as Iran and Oman advanced plans for a temporary maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Gold has declined from yesterday’s peak.  The first alert of a reversal may lie beneath the mid-Cycle support at 4544.00.  Should it remain above that level, the indicators suggests another probe higher may be forthcoming.  A possible target in that event may be 5000.00.

The Ag Index is consolidating beneath yesterday’s high.  The Cycles Model allows another week or so to test the high or make a corrective low before  before a new Cycle may emerge.  The timing and fractal structure are complex and may need more time to sort things out.

ZeroHedge gives notice, “Warnings on Wall Street about a confluence of stressors building deep within global agricultural supply chains are growing louder by the week, raising the risk of a food crisis next year.”

Bitcoin has pulled back from the Cycle Too resistance, currently at 81680.00.  It may be due for a pullback, perhaps to 75000.00, before proceeding higher.  The current master Cycle extends to the end of September.  A really above the Cycle Top may engage one of the Fibonacci levels illustrated in the chart.   A target near 100000.00 is not out of the question.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:45 am

BKX reversed from its trading channel trendlineand may proceed higher,  Altough there is a possibility of makeing a new high near 200.00, the Cycles Model is less than forthcoming about it.  The question is, will Bessent’s TGA plan work?  Stay alert for a break of the trendline near 185.00.

ZeroHedge observes, “US Treasury Secretary Bessent took out a tactical nuke in saying he could use $1trn from the Treasury General Account to fund Special Military Operation Twist bond buybacks vs. the $2bn per round increase we saw last week. That looks a lot like the ‘Whatever It Takes’ mentioned yesterday: his former mentor Stan Druckenmiller is not a fan, apparently.”

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose up to 7699.50, against round number resistance, setting up a possible buy signal above 7700.00.  The expected correction may be over, having made a minimal 35.5% retracement.  This may be a second buying opportunity for both the SPX and NDX.  SPX may be ready to make its final probe to its all-time high over the next several weeks.  The coming rally may be subdued for the balance of this week.  However, September may come in with a bang.  as it breaks higher.  The minimal target for this rally may be the trendline near 7925.00.  However, should the rally extend beyond mid-September, the rally may “throw over” the trendline with a possible target near 8100.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global stocks rose as chipmakers rebounded, with falling bond yields adding support to risek sentiment after Brent crude slid below $90 a barrel, down more than 3% after a New York times reports that “evacuated foreign service officers could begin heading back to their posts as early as this week… suggesting Washington does not anticipate a renewal of full-scale conflict with Iran.”” 

NDX futures rose to 29344.90 thus far, overtaking the 52-day Moving Average at 29303.39 and offering a possible buy signal after a gut-wrenching decline.  Should it follow through, the upper trendline near 31800.00 may be its intended target by mid-September.

The premarket VIX is consolidating jn a narrow range this morning.  Investors may distrust the rally in equities this week, increasing their hedges against another decline.

The US 10-year Bond Yield dropped back after a near-breakout (47.44) on Friday.  The cash intervention from the Treasury General Account may be an attempt to produce a massive short squeeze.  The Cycles Model suggests it may temporarily be so, with the current Master Cycle headed for the 53-day Moving Average at 45.83 over the next week.   It should be noted that history does not support this move as a long term solution.  The uptrend may remain intact.

ZeroHedge remarks, “I predicted back in May that the bond market would “break” Washington. Last week we saw signs of that with the Treasury’s increased intervention at the long end of the curve.”

The USD is consolidating beneath its mid-Cycle resistance at 99.03 this morning.  The consolidation may continue through the week, with a possible surge in strength in September.

Crude oil tested the Intermediate support at 81.97, then rose above it.  A poossible bounce higher is anticipated, as the Cycles Model offers a return of strength by the end of the week.

ZeroHedge observes, “There continue to be clear signals that the White House is moving away from the potential for renewed military action and instead settling in for a long economic siege campaign targeting Iran, on a permanent basis.”

Gold made corrective high this morning at 4697.30.  It may have reversed, completing its Master Cycle.    A decline beneath its mid-Cycle support at 4541.87 may confirm the reversal and offer a sell signal.  Should that be so, the new Master Cycle may take gold considerably lower by mid-October.

The Ag Index may have made its Master Cycle high yesterday at 425.89.  In the process it may have left a new, higher neckline for a Head & Shoulders formation.  It may be due for a two-week correction down to the Cycle Top support at 403.65.  Should it find support there, it may proceed higher to mid-January.  Additional targets for the Ag Index are, 575.00 and possibly 880.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to a new corrective low at 7649.20 thus far this morning.  The Intermediate support is at 7684.96 and the 52-day Moving Average is at 7532.81, which may be tested in the next 2 days.  Trending Strength may return by the end of the week and continue for the following two weeks in a flurry of panic upside activity.  The uptrend is still intact.

Zerohedge reports, “Futures are lower with Tech underperforming as the market focuses on NVDA / MRVL earnings this week; while the AI theme is pressured globally and memory stocks slump driven by a slide in the Kospi.”

VIX surged to 16.05 in the premarket, then settled back, maintaining its support at the Triangle trendline.  It may surge higher today and probe the upper Ending Diagonal trendline by the end of the week.  Subsequently, the VIX has one more downstrike to go in its fractal repertoire.

The US 10-year Bond Yield  pulled back to the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation this morning after Bessent’s annoncement to use the Treasury General Account (TGA) to sell short-term bills and buy back long bonds.  This new “twist” in the bond market may not last as TNX may be due for an imminent breakout.

ZeroHedge observes, “Having seen yields rebound from their initial decline following the upping of Treasury (long-end) buybacks to ‘at least $4BN’ per operation (and increased its total planned operations), Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent jawboned late last week about his ‘bigger toolkit’ and ‘asymmetric information’ in an attempt to further strengthen the ‘Treasury Put’.”

The USD Index may be emerging from its Master Cyce low last Thusday.  Should that be so, a probe above the mid-Cycle resistance at 99..13 may offer a buy signl.  The Cycles Model suggests that the return of Trending Strength may be imminent, which may confirm this outlook.

Crude oil has pulled back to the declining trendlineat 85.50 this morning.  However, the Cycles Model offers a possible surge in strength taking it higher.  Whether it surges to a breakout is still to be determined.  There may be a subsequent pullback to a lower support level by the ned of the week.

Gold may be in its final stages of this retracement rally as it enters the turn window this week.  The shorts have been squeezed by the Treasury QE.  The question is, will it hold?

Bitcoin may be due for a pullback thie week as it may have gone too far, too fast.  The rally isn’t over yet, but some consolidation is due after being repelled at the trendline.  A pullback to the mid-Cycle support at 69138.00 is possible.  Look for the rally to resume at the end of the month.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures bounced this morning after making a 35% retracement from the high.  However, it has remained beneath resistance at 7700.00which may allow a dip lower.  The chances of a deeper low may run out this morning, so we may not have long to wait.  For example, a possible 50% retracement lies near 7560.00.  Investors are “all in” as mutual fund cash is at at an all-time low.  The Treasury’s ill-executed buyback scheme may need a repeat to jolt the markets higher.  The Cycles Model does not show Trending Strength returning until the end of the month.

VIX is xconsolidating near the middle of its recent trading range above the lower Triangle trendline.  A further decline in the SPX may push the VIX higher, as it may have the energy to rise to the Ending Diagonall trendline at 20.00.

Bitcoin rose to a morning high at 78410.00 this morning, beneath the Cycle Top resistaance at 81033.00.  On Tuesday it offered a buy signal, accompanied by trending strength, and off it went, as the shorts frantically covered.  The Cycles Model suggests a pullback may be in order, possibly to the mid-Cycle support at 68961.00, before a month-end burst of energy pushes it higher.  The next resistance level above the Cycle Top lies at the 38.2% retracement level at 84250.00.  The cycles Model sugests the trend may continue (with corrections) until the end of September.

Crude oil is consolidating above trendline support as it consolidates between moves.  The next probe higher may occur next week, with strength, as it extends its rally to mid-October.

Gold is moving higher in a complex correction that may not be complete.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible week of rally before resuming its decline.  It has broken above its downtrend line and may extend to 4900.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have pulled back to 7694.60 this morning, above its correction low at 7688.00.  The Cycles Model suggests that the SPX may grind higher through the end ofthe month.  As it overtakes the Cycle Top at 7821.97, momentum players may enter the fray, pushing it to 8000.00.  The upper trendline is near 7900.00, so there may likely be a throw-over as panic buying takes over.  Bessent’s QE has given the markets the liquidity to go higher despite the pullback in the NDX.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures slide and are trading at session lows, as bond yields surge after yesterday’s Treasury announcement, having now erased the entire post buyback-boost move; yields are 4-5bps higher as the curve bear steepens sharply with the 10Y yield now at 4.69%, above where it was before the Treasury’s press release yesterday, driven by a surge in Brent above $94 after Trump vowed to unleash an “Economic D-Day” on Iran’s economy.”

The premarket VIX has risen above the Triangle trendline as it bounces toward the Ending Diagonal trensline near 20.00.  The Cycles Model suggests positive trending strength may emerge in the next week to punch it up to trendline resistance.  Investors are looking to hedge their “uncertain” longs as the crowd is not fully “in.”.

TNX rose above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 478.00 this morning.  The injection of QE has no staying power, as things are expected to revert back to “normal.”

ZeroHedge observes, “While today’s market moves (post-Bessent’s OpTwist bailout) are changing things rapidly, since the last FOMC meeting, on July 19th, where Warsh held rates (hawkishly) unchanged (in the biggest surprise to market expectations in decades) amid multiple dissents, gold, bitcoin, and oil have outperformed, the dollar and bonds have lagged, with stocks solidly green in the middle…”

USD is stretching the Master Cycle to a new low this morning, as the fresh liquidity has diluted the dollar.  The dollar bears are rejoicing, but there are limits to the decline that may disappoint.  The dollar may consolidate beneath the mid-Cycle resistance at 99.13.  However, it has the probability to offer a buy signal once the USD rises above it.  The new Master Cycle may rise to mid-October, allowing the USD to engage the Head & Shoulders target.

Crude oil rallied above the down-trend line at 85.00. There may be some consolidation around the trendline  before it may continue with greater strength over the weekend.  The Cycles Model indicates the rally may continue to mid-October with the minimum target at the Cycle Top at 110.70.   Should it rise above the Cycle Top, 130.00 may be possible.

Gold may have made its Master Cycle high this morning as  it was repelled by the double resistance at 4533.00.  The reversal is early, but confirmation may come quickly as a potential sell signal lies beneath the combined support currently at 4174.65.

The Ag index has advanced to a possible resistance area as it also approaches the terminus of its current Master Cycle.  This suggests that a reversal may be just days away.  There is a strong probability of a pullback to the Head & Shoulders neckline just under 400.00 in the next week or two.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have been hovering beneaath 7700.00 this morning, suggesting a brief test of the low, possibly to  7680.00 this morning.  That action would give the current Fractal a 21-day profile, allowing SPX  another possible 21 days left to make its final ATH.  8000.00 may be in view, but it may be a struggle to get there.  Breadth is declining, with investors chasing the latest hiccup, with no rational theme.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are flat but off their lows as Tech gets a boost from a huge Hynix buyback, which erased ~8% decline to trade up as much as 2% and reversed a 5.8% drop in the Nikkei; the ADRs are +5.6% pre-mkt boosting both Memory and Korea ETFs.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above the Triangle formation as it organizes a move toward the Ending Diagonal trendline near 20.00.  Investors are going long and buying protection at the same time.  The Cycles Model maintains that confidence will rise toward the end of the month as the SPX refuses tocorrect.  They will then discard their hedges as the SPX approaches 8000.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield plummeted to a low of 46.33 this morning in a complex correction that may decline to the 52-day Moving Average at 45.70 by the end of the month.  The breakout failed by a mere tick.  Long bonds may get a brief reprieve.  The weekly chart shows a possible Cup with Handle formation with a possible target near 60.00.  The rise in Treasury yields may eventually make the interest payments unsustainable.

USD is extending its Master Cycle beneath the mid-Cycle support at 99.13.  The extension puts the Master  Cycle into overtime, suggesting an imminent reversal.  A rise above the mmid-Cycle level may offer a buy signal.

Crude oil is consolidating just beneath the declining Triangle trendline near 86.50.  A breakout may extend the rally and serve as a  pullback support.  Otherwise, a dip to Intermediate support at 80.25 may offer a platform for a surge of strength next week.

ZeroHedge observes, “Brent at $90.94 looks almost civilized. Jeff Currie thinks that is exactly the problem: everyone is staring at crude while the real energy shock is already showing up in the fuels people actually buy.”

Gold is approaching its mid-Cycle resistance at 4531.39 where a possible reversal awaits.  With Bessent’s QE attempt, the complex Triangle formation morphed into a simple zigzag formatiion that is nearing its end.  The rally remains corrective, with a significant decline to follow.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The reason for today’s rally is Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said that the US would be buying back more bonds further out on the curve.”

The Ag Index continues its ascent after the breakout above the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation.  While the rally may not be complete, GKX has become extended with a potential rising of a pullback to the neckline.  There are only a couple of weeks left in the current Master Cycle, leading to a neutral stance for the time to the pullback.